From Columbus Housing Market 7.2% Income Growth to Intel-Nvidia $5B Investment Close: NAR Projects Top-10 National Ranking While AI Chip Partnership Completes Share Sale as Brookfield Acquires $66M Rickenbacker Warehouse and RentCafe Ranks City 7th Most Livable

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BTW- The Columbus Housing Market has SHIFTED, … HARD… Watch the video below

This week's year-end data reveals Columbus housing market fundamentals supporting 2026 growth projections while Intel semiconductor investment partnerships advance despite Ohio facility timeline extensions, as institutional real estate transactions and livability rankings validate regional quality-of-life advantages.

In today's newsletter:

• Housing Market Momentum: NAR projects Columbus among top-10 national markets citing 7.2% income growth outpacing home price appreciation, 76% household median-price affordability versus 67% U.S. average, and 41,000+ households gaining purchase capacity with 1-point mortgage rate decline as median price reaches $328,500 (26.3% increase since 2021) with New Albany-Plain 34.6% sales volume surge and Johnstown-Monroe 25.6% increase demonstrating suburban growth concentration

• Intel-Nvidia Partnership Close: Semiconductor giant completes $5B share sale (214M+ shares at $23.28 September price, currently $36.68 creating $7.9B stake value representing 58% paper gain) finalizing AI collaboration despite Reuters report suggesting Nvidia halted Intel Foundry 18A process evaluation as Ohio facility timeline shifts to 2030-2031 opening following summer construction pace slowdown

• Rickenbacker Industrial Transaction: Brookfield Properties acquires 800,000 SF 1901 Beggrow Street warehouse for $66M from Toronto-based Granite REIT (53% gain over $53.2M 2019 purchase), with PepsiCo-Quaker Oats tenant lease supporting Rickenbacker West Industrial Center valuation as global logistics real estate demand concentrates in Columbus-Groveport corridor

• Livability Ranking Jump: RentCafe elevates Columbus to 7th most livable U.S. metro (28-spot improvement from 35th) citing 94.9% population park-gym access versus 75.3% prior year, quality-of-life category advancement from 67th to 14th nationally, and 4.7% below-national-average cost of living despite year-over-year increases as Midwest metros capture five top-20 positions

COLUMBUS HOUSING MARKET PROJECTS TOP-10 NATIONAL RANKING WITH 7.2% INCOME GROWTH OUTPACING HOME PRICE APPRECIATION AS 41,000+ HOUSEHOLDS GAIN PURCHASE CAPACITY

National Association of Realtors positions Columbus among 2026 hottest markets citing second-fastest income growth (7.2% from 2024), 76% household median-price affordability versus 67% national average, and mortgage rate decline from 7% to 6% unlocking 41,000+ household purchase capacity as median price reaches $328,500 (26.3% increase since 2021 $260K baseline) with New Albany-Plain 34.6% sales volume surge and Johnstown-Monroe 25.6% increase demonstrating suburban growth concentration. [Columbus Business First]

Income-Affordability Dynamics:

• 7.2% income growth 2024-2025 (second-fastest among top-10 markets)

• Income growth outpacing home price appreciation

• 76% Columbus households holding needed income for median-priced home comfort

• 67% national average household median-price affordability

• 41,000+ households gaining purchase capacity with 1-point rate decline

• 10% household conversion to purchases (4,000+ homes) projected with rate improvement

Market Fundamentals:

• $328,500 median sales price (first 11 months 2025, 2.7% year-over-year increase)

• $350,000 peak median price (June 2025)

• 27,330 closed sales (January-November 2025 Central Ohio)

• 26.3% median price appreciation since 2021 ($260K to $328,500)

• $100,000 below national median home price positioning

• 3-4% price appreciation projected 2026 (Columbus Realtors President Buffie Patterson)

Mortgage Rate Environment:

• Current rates above 6% (30-year fixed, Freddie Mac)

• Zillow-Realtor.com projections: 6%+ rates continuing 2026

• Redfin-NAR predictions: slight rate decreases possible

• CrossCountry Mortgage reporting 2025 lending volume increase versus 2024

• "Pent-up demand and limited housing supply" driving activity

• Quarter-point rate changes generating "noticeable increase in buyer engagement"

Geographic Growth Patterns:

• New Albany-Plain school district: 34.6% average sales increase (January-November versus 2024), 15.7% November median price increase year-over-year

• Johnstown-Monroe: 25.6% average sales increase, 62% November median price increase (highest year-over-year among all school districts)

• Emerging interest: Lithopolis, Buckeye Valley, Obetz (40-minute Columbus radius communities)

• Pattern shift: Growth "all around I-270" versus historical northern suburb concentration

Rental-Ownership Economics:

• $1,438 average Columbus rent (November 2025 Zillow)

• $1,100 average rent (December 2020 baseline)

• 30.7% rental cost increase five-year period

• Rent-versus-mortgage cost comparison driving homeownership consideration

Wall Street Journal Concerns:

December 9 report warning "Columbus' longtime Goldilocks status as successful city with still-affordable housing now on shaky ground" citing rising demand and expected construction decreases creating affordability pressure trajectory.

What Makes It Transformational:

Columbus housing market's income growth outpacing price appreciation creates sustainable demand expansion versus speculative bubble pattern, with 7.2% wage increases enabling household purchasing power improvement despite 2.7% year-over-year median price gains. NAR's 76% household median-price affordability versus 67% national average demonstrates relative accessibility advantage supporting continued in-migration from higher-cost coastal markets, though Wall Street Journal "shaky ground" warning suggests affordability edge eroding.

41,000+ households gaining purchase capacity with 1-point mortgage rate decline to 6% quantifies latent demand awaiting favorable financing conditions, with CrossCountry Mortgage branch manager Stuart Spalt characterizing rate environment as "new normal" requiring buyer-seller acceptance versus awaiting return to 3% 2021 rates. However, current 6%+ rates constrain purchasing power relative to low-rate era, with quarter-point movements generating "noticeable engagement increases" demonstrating market sensitivity.

INTEL COMPLETES $5B NVIDIA SHARE SALE WITH 214M+ SHARES AT $23.28 CREATING 4% OWNERSHIP STAKE AS CURRENT $36.68 PRICE GENERATES 58% PAPER GAIN

Semiconductor manufacturer finalizes December 26 issuance delivering $5B cash infusion through Nvidia 214M+ share purchase at September-agreed $23.28 price, with current $36.68 trading creating $7.9B stake value (58% gain) while AI collaboration advances despite Reuters report suggesting Nvidia halted Intel Foundry 18A process node evaluation as Ohio facility timeline extends to 2030-2031 opening following summer construction pace slowdown. [Columbus Business Journal]

Transaction Details:

• $5 billion total Nvidia investment

• 214 million+ Intel shares issued

• $23.28 per-share September agreement price

• December 26, 2025 completion date

• 4% Nvidia ownership stake in Intel

• $36.68 current Intel share price (December 31)

• $7.9 billion current stake value (58% paper gain versus $5B cost)

Strategic Collaboration Elements:

• Intel CPU-Nvidia technology infusion for personal computers

• Intel CPU-Nvidia GPU data center integration "new way"

• AI chip partnership beyond pure financial investment

• No Nvidia commitment using Intel Foundry manufacturing services

Intel Foundry Challenge:

Reuters reporting Nvidia explored Intel 18A process node "but stopped moving forward," with neither company directly responding though Intel characterizing 18A as "progressing well," suggesting manufacturing competitiveness concerns affecting customer attraction despite technology claims.

Ohio Facility Timeline:

• Original 2025 opening target (2022 groundbreaking)

• Current 2030-2031 projected opening

• $28 billion semiconductor fabrication complex (New Albany)

• Summer 2025 construction pace slowdown announcement

• "Customer demand will determine if and when pace picks up" Intel statement

• Several key Ohio employees departed (General Manager Jim Evers remains)

Additional 2025 Cash Infusions:

• SoftBank Group: August agreement purchasing 87M shares at $23 ($2B investment)

• U.S. Government: August agreement purchasing 433M shares at $20.47 ($8.9B Chips Act grant conversion, nearly 10% ownership stake)

• Construction deadline lifts across Ohio and three additional states following federal investment

Technology Context:

Intel struggling with "years of technology missteps" leaving company "largely out of AI boom" and eroding dominance in traditional markets, creating financial pressure necessitating major cash infusions and strategic partnerships for turnaround execution.

What Makes It Strategic:

Nvidia's $5B Intel investment at $23.28 with current $36.68 price creating $7.9B stake value (58% gain) provides Intel crucial cash while giving Nvidia major AI competitor ownership position, creating alignment incentives though Reuters 18A foundry evaluation halt suggests manufacturing capability skepticism persisting despite partnership optimism. Intel's acceptance of $23.28 share price (September agreement when stock traded around $30) versus current $36.68 reflects capital urgency, with multiple 2025 cash infusions (Nvidia $5B, SoftBank $2B, U.S. Government $8.9B) totaling $15.9B demonstrating severe liquidity requirements.

For Ohio implications, 2030-2031 facility timeline extension from original 2025 opening represents five-year delay undermining Chips Act strategic urgency and regional economic development expectations, with "customer demand determines pace" Intel statement acknowledging manufacturing business uncertainty. Several key employee departures (though General Manager Jim Evers retention) suggest organizational instability, while construction deadline lifts following U.S. Government investment provide schedule flexibility preventing aggressive timeline adherence potentially compromising quality.

BROOKFIELD PROPERTIES ACQUIRES 800,000 SF RICKENBACKER WAREHOUSE FOR $66M FROM GRANITE REIT AS PEPSICO LEASE SUPPORTS GLOBAL LOGISTICS REAL ESTATE DEMAND

Toronto-based Brookfield purchases 1901 Beggrow Street facility for $66M from Granite Real Estate Investment Trust achieving 24% gain over $53.2M 2019 acquisition, with PepsiCo-Quaker Oats warehouse-distribution tenant lease supporting Rickenbacker West Industrial Center valuation as global institutional capital concentrates in Columbus-Groveport logistics corridor following recent $83M NorthPoint-affiliated warehouse trio transaction. [Columbus Business First]

Transaction Specifications:

• $66 million purchase price

• 800,000+ square feet facility

• 1901 Beggrow Street location (Rickenbacker West Industrial Center)

• 51 acres site

• 2018 completion (Pizzuti Cos. development)

• One-story configuration

• Granite REIT seller ($53.2M 2019 purchase, 24% gain)

Tenant Profile:

• PepsiCo Inc. and Quaker Oats Co. lease

• Warehouse and distribution center function

• PepsiCo-Quaker products storage and logistics

• Initially spec construction before tenant lease execution

Brookfield Portfolio:

• Global developer-operator multiple real estate sectors

• Office, retail, multifamily, hospitality, logistics specialization

• 1,100+ properties totaling 370M+ square feet

• 38M+ square feet under active development

• Additional Columbus-Groveport-Worthington industrial properties

• Ohio presence: Wapakoneta, Beachwood, Cincinnati

Regional Transaction Context:

Recent $83M combined purchase of three Rickenbacker-area warehouses under NP Heartland entities (NorthPoint Development affiliation) totaling 856,000 SF, creating $149M combined recent industrial transaction volume demonstrating institutional logistics real estate demand concentration.

Rickenbacker Corridor Advantages:

• Rickenbacker International Airport cargo access

• Interstate 270-U.S. 33 highway connectivity

• Foreign Trade Zone designation

• Rail infrastructure availability

• Columbus market centrality for Midwest-Southeast distribution

What Makes It Strategic:

Brookfield's $66M acquisition at 24% premium over Granite's $53.2M 2019 purchase demonstrates industrial real estate appreciation driven by e-commerce logistics demand and Columbus geographic centrality, with PepsiCo-Quaker Oats tenant providing credit-quality lease supporting institutional investment thesis. 800,000 SF single-tenant configuration optimizes operational efficiency for distribution functions versus multi-tenant subdivision creating management complexity.

Combined with recent $83M NorthPoint-affiliated warehouse trio purchase, Rickenbacker corridor attracting $149M institutional capital within short timeframe validates logistics real estate investment concentration as global operators pursue Columbus market exposure. Brookfield's 1,100+ property portfolio spanning 370M SF provides scale advantages for tenant relationships, financing terms, and operational efficiencies smaller investors cannot replicate.

RENTCAFE ELEVATES COLUMBUS TO 7TH MOST LIVABLE U.S. METRO WITH 28-SPOT IMPROVEMENT CITING 94.9% PARK-GYM ACCESS AND QUALITY-OF-LIFE ADVANCEMENT

National ranking jumps from 35th to 7th position across 149 metro evaluation using 17 metrics spanning socioeconomics-quality of life-location and community, with quality-of-life category advancement from 67th to 14th nationally driven by 94.9% population park-gym access versus 75.3% prior year and 4.7% below-national-average cost of living despite year-over-year increases as Midwest metros capture five top-20 positions. [Columbus Business First]

Ranking Methodology:

• 149 U.S. metro areas evaluated

• 17 metrics across three categories

• Socioeconomics: 20% weighting

• Quality of life: 40% weighting

• Location and community: 40% weighting

• 28-spot improvement (35th to 7th position)

Quality-of-Life Gains:

• 67th to 14th national ranking (category)

• 94.9% population park-gym access (versus 75.3% 2024)

• Sick days taken metric

• Food quality assessment

• Uninsured population percentage

• Food resources, higher education access, sports-cultural facilities highlights

Location-Community Factors:

• Arts-entertainment opportunities

• Average commute time to work

• 39.6% population commuting 30+ minutes (versus 43.1% 2024)

• Community connectivity and accessibility

Cost-of-Living Advantage:

• 4.7% below national average

• Year-over-year cost increases acknowledged

• Relative affordability versus peer metros maintained

Midwest Regional Dominance:

Five Midwest metros in top-20:

1. Kansas City (3rd nationally)

2. Des Moines (4th)

3. Ann Arbor (5th)

4. Columbus (7th)

5. Indianapolis (11th)

6. Minneapolis (16th)

Ohio Metro Comparison:

• Columbus: 7th nationally (1st Ohio)

• Dayton: 2nd most livable Ohio metro

• Cleveland: 3rd Ohio ranking

NAR Housing Ranking Correlation:

Columbus, Indianapolis, Minneapolis appearing in both RentCafe top-10 livability and NAR top-10 2026 housing hotspots, with median income-to-home price ratios and job-income growth supporting residential demand validation.

What Makes It Critical:

Columbus's 28-spot livability ranking improvement (35th to 7th) driven primarily by 94.9% park-gym access versus 75.3% prior year suggests infrastructure investment or measurement methodology change creating dramatic single-year shift, with quality-of-life category advancement from 67th to 14th nationally providing strongest differentiation versus peer metros. However, 19.6 percentage point access increase appears statistically improbable without major facility construction or geographic expansion redefining accessibility parameters.

Midwest regional dominance capturing five top-20 positions (Kansas City 3rd, Des Moines 4th, Ann Arbor 5th, Columbus 7th, Indianapolis 11th, Minneapolis 16th) demonstrates cost-of-living advantages and quality-of-life improvements challenging coastal metro supremacy, with Columbus 4.7% below-national-average positioning supporting in-migration from higher-cost markets seeking comparable amenities at reduced expenses.

For economic development implications, top-10 livability ranking provides corporate recruitment marketing asset citing quality-of-life advantages attracting talent, while correlation with NAR top-10 housing hotspot status creates reinforcing narrative connecting residential affordability, employment growth, and lifestyle amenities. However, rankings volatility (28-spot single-year improvement) suggests methodology sensitivity limiting long-term predictive reliability.

Commute time improvement (39.6% versus 43.1% exceeding 30 minutes) reflects either remote work adoption reducing commuting frequency or transportation infrastructure enhancements, with pandemic-era workplace flexibility potentially creating sustained pattern versus temporary disruption. However, return-to-office mandates by major employers could reverse gains if hybrid work arrangements contract.

THIS WEEK'S WRAP-UP

Homeowners: NAR top-10 housing market projection with 7.2% income growth validates property value appreciation trajectory while RentCafe 7th livability ranking and 94.9% park-gym access demonstrates quality-of-life advantages, plus Intel-Nvidia $5B partnership advancing despite Ohio facility delays and Brookfield $66M Rickenbacker acquisition supports industrial real estate demand though mortgage rates above 6% constrain buyer activity requiring financing improvement for sustained transaction volume.

Home buyers: 41,000+ households gaining purchase capacity with 1-point mortgage rate decline to 6% suggests latent demand awaiting favorable conditions while New Albany-Plain 34.6% sales surge and Johnstown-Monroe 25.6% increase demonstrate suburban growth patterns, plus 76% household median-price affordability versus 67% national average provides relative accessibility though $328,500 median (26.3% increase since 2021) challenges first-time buyers and rental costs 30.7% increase creates ownership economics advantages.

Investors: Columbus housing market income growth outpacing price appreciation creates sustainable demand versus speculative bubble while Intel-Nvidia partnership volatility affects Licking County semiconductor campus timeline expectations, plus Brookfield institutional $66M logistics warehouse acquisition validates Rickenbacker corridor investment thesis and livability ranking improvement supports residential development positioning though Wall Street Journal "shaky ground" affordability warning suggests premium market saturation risks and mortgage rate environment above 6% constrains transaction velocity affecting development absorption timelines.

Bottom line: This week's year-end data demonstrates Columbus housing market fundamentals supporting 2026 growth projections through income-affordability dynamics while Intel investment partnerships advance despite Ohio facility delays, as institutional real estate transactions and livability rankings validate regional competitive advantages though mortgage rate environment and semiconductor timeline uncertainties create implementation risks across residential and industrial development trajectories.

Ready to evaluate housing market timing considering income growth-affordability dynamics or assess industrial corridor investment opportunities following institutional transactions? Let's connect you with partners understanding mortgage rate sensitivity patterns and logistics real estate demand drivers affecting residential purchase decisions and commercial property positioning strategies across metropolitan development spectrum.

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See you next week,

• Gagan T