From Intel Ohio One Bechtel Hiring Surge to Polaris Parkway 220K SF Westsar East Approval

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This week's data reveals Intel semiconductor construction momentum building through contractor hiring while Polaris corridor expansion continues despite traffic capacity challenges, as statewide migration trends show southern state preference though Central Ohio maintains suburban growth pockets.

In today's newsletter:

• Intel Ohio One Construction: Bechtel posts eight-plus New Albany job listings indicating 2.5M SF first-phase design-build acceleration toward 2030-2031 Mod 1-2 fab completion with "as much steel as eight Eiffel Towers" supporting 14A process node potential following $8.9B CHIPS Act funding (10% U.S. Government stake) and $5B Nvidia partnership revitalizing project after years stagnation

• Westsar East Polaris Approval: Westerville City Council unanimously authorizes 220,000 SF retail-office complex with 1,000+ parking spaces at Polaris Parkway-Worthington Road.

• Ohio Migration Ranking Drop: U-Haul Growth Index falls 29 spots to #43 nationally (largest year-over-year decline) with 50.3% departures versus 49.7% arrivals marking first net-loss state since 2017.

• Intel Timeline Reality: 2030-2031 fab completion represents five-year delay from 2025 original estimates with 14A process node tipped 2027 production-ready creating derivatives.

BECHTEL POSTS EIGHT-PLUS INTEL OHIO ONE JOB LISTINGS SIGNALING 2.5M SF CONSTRUCTION ACCELERATION TOWARD 2030-2031 MOD 1-2 FAB COMPLETION

Contractor Manufacturing and Technology unit recruits managers, welders, electricians for New Albany project first-phase design-build spanning "as much steel as eight Eiffel Towers" with two initial fabs (Mod 1-2) accommodating future eight-facility campus expansion following $8.9B CHIPS Act funding (10% U.S. Government equity) and $5B Nvidia partnership revitalizing construction after years stagnation. [Tom's Hardware]

Bechtel Recruitment Activity:

• Eight-plus New Albany direct-mention job listings

• Roles: Managers, welders, electricians

• Bechtel Group Manufacturing and Technology unit (construction firm)

• Project overview: First-phase design-build, 2.5M square feet

• "As much steel as eight Eiffel Towers" materials specification

Facility Specifications:

• Two initial fabs: Mod 1 and Mod 2

• Future expansion: Up to eight total fabs

• 2030-2031 completion timeline (Mod 1 production-ready first, Mod 2 following year)

• Leading-edge logic campus designation

• New Albany location (Licking County, "Silicon Heartland")

Funding Catalysts:

• CHIPS Act: $8.9B remaining funding (White House release 2025), 10% U.S. Government ownership stake

• Nvidia Partnership: $5B investment (214M+ shares at $23.28, currently $36.68 creating 58% paper gain)

• Combined $13.9B capital infusion enabling construction acceleration post-stagnation years

Timeline Evolution:

• Original announcement: 2022 (2025 completion estimate)

• Current timeline: 2030-2031 (five-year delay)

• Mod 1: Production-ready first

• Mod 2: Following year after Mod 1

Process Node Context:

• 14A tipped 2027 production-ready (pre-Ohio One completion)

• 14A derivatives (14A-E) dominating portfolio before campus activation

• Leading-edge logic campus enables future process node tape-out

• CEO Lip-Bu Tan recent 14A sentiment reversal ("going big time into 14A")

Historical Challenges:

• Multiple delays amid internal shakeups

• Plans scaled back from "America's biggest fab complex" original pitch

• Project survival confirmed after U.S. Senator probe

• Years of stagnation pre-CHIPS Act and Nvidia funding

What Makes It Strategic:

Bechtel's eight-plus New Albany job postings represent tangible construction progress signal after years Intel Ohio One uncertainty, with manager-welder-electrician recruitment indicating design finalization and active site work transitioning from planning to execution phases. 2.5M square foot first-phase scale with "eight Eiffel Towers steel" demonstrates massive infrastructure investment creating thousands construction jobs preceding eventual 3,000 Intel employee fab operations.

2030-2031 timeline represents reality check from 2025 original estimates, though five-year delay enables Intel technology roadmap alignment with 14A process node production-ready 2027 positioning Ohio One for derivatives (14A-E) or potentially next-generation nodes versus outdated technology risk if facility completed during transition periods. Leading-edge logic campus designation provides flexibility tape-out future processes as semiconductor industry evolves, preventing single-node dependency limiting facility lifespan.

For Licking County economic impact, construction acceleration creates near-term employment through Bechtel hiring (managers, welders, electricians plus support roles) preceding 2030-2031 fab activation delivering promised 3,000 Intel jobs, 7,000 construction workers peak, and 10,000+ ecosystem positions. However, extended timeline to 2030-2031 delays economic benefits realization and infrastructure investment returns as housing-transportation-utility projects sized for earlier activation face extended underutilization.

CHIPS Act $8.9B funding with 10% U.S. Government ownership stake creates unprecedented federal semiconductor company equity position, with construction deadline lifts enabling timeline flexibility versus private market accountability pressures. Combined with Nvidia $5B partnership (4% stake, strategic AI collaboration), Intel secures $13.9B 2025 capital influx revitalizing Ohio One after years financial constraints and internal turmoil threatening project viability.

CEO Lip-Bu Tan's recent 14A sentiment reversal from bearish to "going big time" suggests technology confidence improvements supporting Ohio One leading-edge positioning, though absence of external 14A foundry customers beyond Intel internal needs creates business model uncertainty requiring client attraction before campus reaches full eight-fab expansion potential.

WESTERVILLE APPROVES WESTSAR EAST 220K SF RETAIL-OFFICE WITH 1,000+ PARKING AT POLARIS PARKWAY-WORTHINGTON ROAD RAISING TRAFFIC CONCERNS

City Council unanimously authorizes development adding Aldi grocery plus additional tenants creating "sleek, modern complex" with "walkable spaces" at corridor intersection as southern Delaware County "developing like crazy" pattern generates rush-hour congestion concerns with IKEA Christmas traffic "packed every lane even side streets" demonstrating infrastructure capacity challenges requiring mitigation strategies. [WBNS-10TV]

Development Specifications:

• 220,000 square feet retail-office space

• 1,000+ parking spaces

• Polaris Parkway and Worthington Road corner location

• Aldi grocery store anchor tenant

• Additional tenants undisclosed

• "Sleek, modern complex" architectural design

• "Walkable spaces" pedestrian emphasis

Approval Status:

• Westerville City Council unanimous approval (Tuesday vote)

• Southern Delaware County jurisdiction

• Polaris Parkway corridor expansion continuation

Polaris Corridor Context:

"One of central Ohio's busiest commercial corridors" designation with existing IKEA, retailers, restaurants, offices creating sustained traffic density exacerbated by rush-hour commuter patterns and holiday shopping peak periods.

What Makes It Strategic:

Westsar East 220K SF addition to already-congested Polaris Parkway corridor demonstrates southern Delaware County development momentum despite infrastructure capacity challenges, with unanimous Westerville approval indicating economic development prioritization over traffic mitigation concerns. Aldi anchor provides grocery competition to existing Kroger-Giant Eagle-Whole Foods creating price alternatives benefiting cost-conscious consumers, though 1,000+ parking spaces generates vehicular trip additions worsening documented rush-hour congestion.

"Walkable spaces" design emphasis attempts mitigating traffic through pedestrian connectivity encouraging multi-destination visits reducing car movements, though suburban Polaris corridor automobile-dependent land use patterns limit walkability viability versus urban mixed-use districts supporting car-free access. Resident Shawn Page's Christmas IKEA traffic observation ("packed every lane even side streets") quantifies capacity challenges new development intensifies absent roadway expansion or transit alternatives.

Westerville jurisdiction over Polaris Parkway corridor segment creates municipal revenue incentives approving development generating sales-income tax collections, though traffic impacts extend beyond city boundaries affecting Lewis Center-Powell-Delaware residents using corridor creating regional coordination challenges. Aldi's discount grocery model targets middle-income households versus premium Whole Foods appealing to affluent demographics, supporting socioeconomic diversity though also reflecting cost-pressures households face requiring budget grocery options.

U-HAUL GROWTH INDEX DROPS OHIO 29 SPOTS TO #43 NATIONALLY WITH 50.3% DEPARTURES VERSUS 49.7% ARRIVALS CONTRASTING CENTRAL OHIO SUBURBAN GROWTH

Largest year-over-year decline falls from #14 net-gain 2024 to #43 marking first net-loss state since 2017 as southern-southwestern states (Texas #1, Florida #2, North Carolina #3) attract climate-driven relocations, though Central Ohio suburbs Sunbury-Pataskala-Pickerington-Powell maintain census population growth demonstrating metro-versus-state divergence as departing customers account for 50.3% one-way traffic. [Columbus Dispatch]

Ohio Rankings:

• 2025: #43 nationally (29-spot drop, largest year-over-year decline)

• 2024: #14 (net-gain state)

• First net-loss state since 2017

• 50.3% departures versus 49.7% arrivals (one-way U-Haul traffic)

• 1% arrival decrease year-over-year, 1% departure increase

Migration Patterns:

• Departures to: Detroit, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis (Midwest preference)

• Arrivals from: Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan, Florida

• Regional movement concentration versus long-distance coastal relocations

Top-10 Growth States (2025):

1. Texas

2. Florida

3. North Carolina

4. Tennessee

5. South Carolina

6. Washington

7. Arizona

8. Idaho

9. Alabama

10. Georgia

Bottom-10 Characteristics:

Eight of bottom-10 states northern locations (Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois) while eight of top-10 southern-southwestern positioning, with "sunshine and warmer climates key attractions" U-Haul analysis citing weather-driven preferences.

Central Ohio Exception:

Sunbury, Pataskala, Pickerington, Powell census population growth despite statewide decline, demonstrating Columbus metro attracting residents while rural-Rust Belt Ohio areas experiencing outmigration creating intra-state divergence.

Methodology:

2.5 million+ annual one-way U-Haul transactions (U.S. and Canada) analyzing net gain-loss of customers renting trucks-trailers-U-Box containers in one state dropping equipment another state, providing migration proxy though limited to moving customers versus comprehensive census data.

What Makes It Critical:

Ohio's 29-spot plunge (#14 to #43, largest year-over-year decline nationally) demonstrates accelerating southern state migration preference driven by climate-tax-cost advantages, with 50.3% departures creating first net-loss since 2017 reversing recent growth momentum. However, Central Ohio suburbs Sunbury-Pataskala-Pickerington-Powell census growth reveals metro-versus-state divergence where Columbus attracts residents while rural-industrial Ohio communities experience population decline creating intra-state winner-loser pattern.

Texas-Florida-North Carolina top-three dominance reflects sustained Sunbelt migration where warmer climates, lower taxes, business-friendly regulations, and housing affordability attract households from Rust Belt-coastal high-cost markets. Eight of top-10 southern-southwestern and eight of bottom-10 northern states demonstrates clear geographic preference pattern, with Ohio's northern climate and industrial economy legacy creating competitive disadvantages versus growing southern metros.

For Columbus implications, local suburban growth (Sunbury-Pataskala-Pickerington-Powell) despite statewide decline suggests metro competitiveness attracting residents from other Ohio regions and neighboring states (Kentucky, Indiana, Michigan), though outmigration to southern destinations (Texas, Florida) limits net population gains. Delaware County 53.6% growth projection by 2050 and Franklin County 7.45% increase validate continued metro expansion, with Intel-Anduril-Meta investments creating employment anchors supporting sustained in-migration.

U-Haul methodology limitations (moving customers only, excludes local moves, corporate relocations, non-U-Haul rentals) prevent comprehensive migration assessment, though large 2.5M+ transaction dataset provides useful directional indicator. Detroit-Pittsburgh-Indianapolis departure preference demonstrates Ohio residents maintaining Midwest regional connections versus wholesale southern relocations, while Florida arrivals suggest retiree returns balancing working-age departures.

Statewide ranking drop creates political-economic development narrative challenges requiring Ohio leaders address tax competitiveness, business climate, and quality-of-life improvements preventing continued southern state losses. However, Central Ohio metro growth demonstrates regional success story providing countervailing positive narrative, with Intel Ohio One, Anduril defense facility, and Meta data centers creating future employment magnets potentially reversing statewide trends if projects deliver promised jobs.

THIS WEEK'S WRAP-UP

Homeowners: Intel Ohio One Bechtel hiring signals construction progress supporting Licking County long-term economic development while Polaris Parkway Westsar East approval demonstrates commercial corridor vitality though traffic congestion concerns require infrastructure mitigation, plus U-Haul #43 ranking reflects statewide challenges though Central Ohio suburbs Sunbury-Pataskala-Pickerington-Powell census growth validates metro property value trajectory despite broader Ohio migration headwinds.

Home buyers: Ohio One 2030-2031 timeline delays fab activation and promised 3,000 Intel jobs affecting New Albany area near-term employment though construction phase creates interim opportunities, while Westerville Westsar East Aldi provides grocery affordability and Polaris corridor congestion suggests evaluating commute tolerance, plus statewide net-loss migration contrasts Columbus metro suburban growth demonstrating regional advantages over rural-Rust Belt alternatives.

Investors: Bechtel recruitment indicates Intel construction momentum supporting Licking County real estate though 2030-2031 delay postpones economic impact realization, while Polaris 220K SF retail-office addition validates southern Delaware County commercial demand despite traffic capacity challenges, plus Ohio #43 U-Haul ranking creates negative perception though Central Ohio exceptions (suburban census growth, corporate investments) provide countervailing fundamentals supporting property positioning strategies differentiating metro from statewide trends.

Bottom line: This week demonstrates Intel semiconductor project advancing through tangible contractor hiring after years uncertainty while Polaris corridor expansion continues despite infrastructure constraints, as statewide migration rankings show southern preference though Columbus metro maintains growth pockets through employment anchors and suburban appeal creating divergent trajectories requiring metro-versus-state distinction in property investment and location decisions.

Ready to evaluate Licking County opportunities considering Intel construction timeline or assess Polaris corridor commercial positioning despite traffic concerns? Let's connect you with partners understanding semiconductor project economic impact phasing and retail development traffic mitigation strategies affecting property investment timing and location selection across metropolitan growth corridors.

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See you next week,

• Gagan T