From Rail Lines to Tax Relief: Columbus Captures $2.5B Property Tax Windfall While Franklinton Emerges as Hottest Housing Market

Hey, it's Gagan. I'm still the only Gagan Timsina in the world (as far as I know).

And here's Why Floridians are Leaving Ohio and GOING BACK!!

In today's newsletter:

Ohio House Passes $2.5B Property Tax Relief: Historic budget plan targets school district cash hoarding with automatic taxpayer rebates starting January 2026, creating immediate savings for Columbus homeowners while implementing nation's second-lowest income tax rate

Franklinton Claims #1 Hottest Market Ranking: 43222 ZIP code leads Central Ohio with 147% five-year price momentum as urban core neighborhoods dominate hottest markets list, signaling gentrification acceleration despite affordability concerns

Amtrak Expansion Studies Enter Critical Phase: 3C+D route connecting Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati advances to $6M feasibility study with 7-8 year timeline, creating long-term transportation infrastructure that could reshape regional development patterns

Housing Market Faces Buyer Advantage Shift: Central Ohio inventory surges 35.5% year-over-year while national affordability crisis reaches unsustainable levels, creating strategic opportunities for positioned buyers before defense tech workforce arrival

OHIO HOUSE DELIVERS $2.5B PROPERTY TAX RELIEF TARGETING SCHOOL DISTRICT CASH HOARDING, CREATING UNPRECEDENTED HOMEOWNER SAVINGS STARTING 2026

Ohio House Republicans passed historic budget legislation mandating automatic property tax rebates from school districts carrying forward more than 40% of general fund budgets, delivering an estimated $2.5 billion in taxpayer relief starting January 2026 while implementing a flat 2.75% income tax rate by 2026. [Republican Newsroom]

Key Highlights:

• $2.5 billion property tax relief begins January 2026 through automatic school district rebate mechanism

• School district cash carryovers increased from $3.6 billion to $10.5 billion since 2012 tracking began

• Flat 2.75% income tax rate by 2026 creates nation's second-lowest state income tax burden

• Additional 2.5% owner-occupancy credit available through county commissioner approval

• $700 million increase in school funding over biennium despite rebate requirements

• $600 million allocation for Browns Brook Park stadium project with tax revenue guarantees

What Makes It Transformational:

The automatic rebate mechanism fundamentally shifts property tax dynamics by penalizing cash hoarding while maintaining education funding, creating direct homeowner savings without reducing school resources. The flat tax implementation positions Ohio competitively against surrounding states for business attraction and retention.

The legislation addresses Columbus homeowners' primary financial pressure while simultaneously creating economic development incentives through sports facility investment and business tax advantages. The owner-occupancy credit expansion provides additional relief targeting residential property owners specifically.

For Columbus property investors, the tax relief creates increased homeowner purchasing power while the Browns stadium project signals continued entertainment economy investment. The combination suggests sustained property demand with improved affordability for qualified buyers.

FRANKLINTON EMERGES AS CENTRAL OHIO'S HOTTEST HOUSING MARKET WITH 147% FIVE-YEAR PRICE SURGE AS URBAN CORE DOMINATES REGIONAL MOMENTUM

ZIP code 43222 in Franklinton topped Central Ohio's hottest housing markets ranking with 147% sales-price momentum over five years, leading eight Columbus neighborhoods in the top-10 list as urban core gentrification accelerates despite regional inventory increases and affordability challenges. [Columbus Business First]

Key Highlights:

• 43222 Franklinton achieved $178,772 average sale price with 147% five-year momentum surge

• 43211 South Linden recorded 144% five-year appreciation as only other triple-digit growth area

• Eight of ten hottest markets located within Columbus city limits, signaling urban core strength

• Regional inventory increased 35.5% year-over-year in May, creating buyer market conditions

• National median list price hits $440,000 requiring 44.6% of median household income

• Central Ohio average sale prices range from $99,124 to $337,506 across hot markets

What Makes It Strategic:

Franklinton's emergence as the hottest market validates urban core investment strategies while demonstrating gentrification's acceleration in previously overlooked neighborhoods. The concentration of Columbus ZIP codes in top-10 rankings confirms city-wide appreciation momentum despite regional inventory increases.

The 147% five-year growth in Franklinton significantly outpaces suburban appreciation rates, creating wealth-building opportunities for early investors while signaling continued urban development potential. South Linden's similar performance confirms the pattern extends beyond single neighborhood anomalies.

For property investors, the urban core dominance creates clear targeting opportunities in Columbus neighborhoods experiencing rapid appreciation. The inventory increase provides entry opportunities before momentum pricing eliminates value plays in emerging areas.

AMTRAK EXPANSION STUDIES ADVANCE TO CRITICAL $6M FEASIBILITY PHASE WITH 7-8 YEAR SERVICE TIMELINE CONNECTING OHIO'S MAJOR CITIES

Ohio's passenger rail expansion program entered the crucial Service Development Plan phase with $6 million in federal funding for feasibility studies of three routes including the 3C+D line connecting Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati, positioning Columbus for intercity rail service within 7-8 years after 46-year absence. [Cleveland.com]

Key Highlights:

• 3C+D route study receives $6 million federal funding with 90% federal cost coverage

• 7-8 year timeline projected for service launch with Cleveland-Columbus segment potentially first

• Three daily departures planned initially with 5.5-hour Cleveland-Cincinnati travel time

• Columbus lacks intercity passenger rail since 1979, making it largest U.S. city without service

• Federal Corridor ID program covers 69 nationwide routes under $1.2 trillion infrastructure law

• Annual economic impact projected at $25-47 million with $106 million construction impact

What Makes It Critical:

Passenger rail connectivity positions Columbus within regional economic corridors while reducing transportation costs and increasing accessibility for workforce and tourism. The 7-8 year timeline aligns with Anduril's workforce deployment schedule, creating complementary infrastructure development.

Federal funding commitment under continuing Trump administration policies suggests project sustainability despite state legislative skepticism. The economic impact projections demonstrate transportation infrastructure's multiplier effects on regional development and business attraction.

For real estate investors, passenger rail connectivity historically drives property appreciation near station locations and transportation corridors. The long development timeline allows strategic positioning in areas likely to benefit from improved accessibility and regional connectivity.

HOUSING MARKET SHIFTS TOWARD BUYER ADVANTAGES AS INVENTORY SURGE MEETS AFFORDABILITY CRISIS, CREATING STRATEGIC OPPORTUNITIES BEFORE DEFENSE TECH INFLUX

Central Ohio housing inventory increased 35.5% year-over-year in May while national affordability reaches unsustainable levels with median homes requiring 44.6% of household income, creating temporary buyer advantages before Anduril's 4,000+ high-income workforce intensifies competition. [Columbus Business First/Realtor.com]

Key Highlights:

• Central Ohio inventory surged 35.5% year-over-year in May, signaling buyer market emergence

• National median list price hits $440,000 requiring 44.6% of median household income

• Only St. Louis, Detroit, Pittsburgh remain affordable to median-income households among major metros

• 21% quarterly increase in listings nationwide with 6% year-over-year growth

• Central Ohio average sale prices range $99,124-$337,506 across hottest markets

• Buyer market conditions create temporary negotiation advantages before workforce influx

What Makes It Critical:

The inventory surge creates temporary buyer advantages that will reverse once Anduril's high-income workforce arrives, making current conditions the last opportunity for reasonable negotiations. National affordability crisis positions Columbus competitively for workforce attraction despite local price increases.

The timing disconnect between inventory increases and pending workforce demand creates arbitrage opportunities for buyers who can purchase before defense tech competition intensifies. Current conditions favor strategic purchases in southern corridor communities positioned for maximum appreciation.

For positioned buyers, the combination of increased inventory and pre-workforce timing creates optimal purchasing conditions unlikely to persist once 4,000+ six-figure earners enter the market. The affordability advantage over coastal markets supports continued in-migration despite local price pressures.

THIS WEEK'S WRAP-UP

Home owners: Property tax relief beginning January 2026 creates immediate savings while Franklinton's 147% appreciation demonstrates urban core investment potential. Monitor school district rebate calculations and consider timing strategies for maximum equity capture before defense tech demand peaks.

Home buyers: Current inventory surge provides last negotiation advantages before Anduril workforce arrival eliminates buyer leverage. Focus on urban core neighborhoods showing momentum and southern corridor communities positioned for transportation infrastructure benefits within 7-8 year timeline.

Investors: Historic tax relief improves homeowner purchasing power while urban core dominance creates clear targeting opportunities in Columbus neighborhoods. Passenger rail timeline aligns with defense tech deployment for complementary infrastructure benefits. Target Franklinton and similar emerging areas before momentum pricing eliminates value plays.

Bottom line: This week demonstrates Columbus's comprehensive transformation through tax policy, infrastructure development, and urban core revitalization, creating unprecedented opportunities for strategic positioning before defense tech workforce arrival and passenger rail connectivity reshape regional dynamics permanently.

Thinking about capitalizing on these opportunities? Let's chat and connect you with our partners!

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See you next week,

— Gagan Timsina